FUTURE EMPLOYMENT

             As the unemployment numbers pile up, I've been thinking lately about the realignment of vocations post-coronavirus.  Like you, I've seen projections of anywhere from 20-30 percent unemployment, which of course would rival the Great Depression of 1929.

             The obvious question is if that many vocations are losers, where are the winners?  Who expects all those unemployed people to become dependent on government payments for the rest of their life?

             As the economy kicks back into gear and the job market re-opens, where will these things be?  Speculation is always dicey, but Teresa and I decided a place to start would be what the world looked like in the 1940s and 1950s.  If we take away WWII (hopefully that won't happen again) and if we take away Franklin Roosevelt's horrendous government spending (the only way he got away with it was because the oil gushers of Texas pumped new wealth into the economy so what would have bankrupted the country could be paid for by new wealth), then realistically where will the shifts happen?

             As baby boomers, we remember when:

 1.  Everybody had a garden.  Everybody.  No Home Owners' Association prohibited raising your own food.  While this is not a job, it does speak to where people spend their spare time and what they do for relaxation and fulfillment.  The size and scope of entertainment, from sports to Hollywood, were a fraction, as a percentage of GDP, of what those venues are today. 

             Perhaps one of the hottest new vocations will be "garden coach" or more broadly, "self reliance coach."   From solariums to gardens to backyard chickens, the pure enjoyment and entertainment value of doing for yourself competes just fine with the Kardashians and Disney.  What if people garden and preserve instead of going on cruises?  I don't hate cruises, but in general, cultural shocks like this always hit luxuries more than necessities.  A new appreciation for necessities is the way to bet as we come out of this pandemic.

             If you know how to grow something, fix something, or build something, you'll be in high demand:  practical skills are the future.

 2.  Going out to eat was a rare treat.  Both of us grew up in middle-income homes, but neither remembers eating out but maybe twice a year.  It was so seldom that we literally can remember "the time when" and where it was.  Restaurants as we knew them 3 months ago may never recover.  It may be that America loses half its restaurants.

             Cooking coaches could be a hot new vocational track.  Adult learning in culinary arts--what a mere few weeks ago seemed old-fashioned and stodgy could easily be the new chic.  Remember when churches did recipe books?  Half of our favorite recipes came from Teresa's Presbyterian cook book, the faves from the women's circle.  Would that be a horrible new world?  I don't think so. 

 3.  Savings.  Everybody saved.  Two months ago I read an in-depth Wall Street Journal special section devoted to characteristics of the millenials.  Lots of good things, but the one big bad thing was that as a group, they'd rather spend for enjoyment today than save for hard times tomorrow.  Baby Boomers, growing up under the tutelage of the WWII generation, heard about savings every day.  It was part of our DNA.

             Our grandmothers saved aluminum foil.  Teresa's grandmother had a string across the ceiling of the kitchen where she washed and clothes-pinned Saran wrap to re-use it.  Our throw-away culture is obscene with waste.  Parents buying every cheap foreign-made bauble for bratty self-centered materialistic kids--it's time to stop this nonsense, and perhaps a re-alignment of values post-Covid-19 will help.  Our kids played with Tupperware and cardboard boxes.

 4.  Stockpiling.  Just-in-time pervades our business and our thoughts.  In the words of Dr. Phil, "how's that workin' out for ya'?   You saw it on the grocery store shelves.  Laying by isn't outdated; it's never been more prudent.  Preppers are now vindicated.  Anyone who had 3 months of food in their house is going through this much more calm than those who don't. 

             This means we'll need people who build and design storage capacity.  Getting organized.  Throwing out junk and re-acquiring essentials is a new imperative.

 5.  Distribution.  It will be awhile before people are comfortable in crowds.  It may not be in our lifetime, such is the hysteria and paranoia from this pandemic.  Based on reality or not, perception is everything, and the fear factor toward crowds is not going to dissipate for a very long time.  That means the rush of purchases on-line precipitated by this contagion will drive acquisition protocols for years to come.

             Electronic sales platforms are the future.  Door-to-door delivery.  While right now UPS and Fed Ex and Amazon dominate this space, we'll see lots of innovative start-ups figure out easier ways for a couple of entrepreneurs to band together on a shared platform, for synergistic partners to meet in a virtual warehouse, and for communities to be served by businesses that provide alternatives to in-person shopping.  Big box stores may be gone.  Macey's, as iconic as it is, may be gone.

             What did I miss?

Photo credit from one of our favorite Insta friends Angie Wendricks