30 MILLION KILLED BY 2050

            Two pharmaceutical company chairmen, normally engaged in bitter marketing competition, joined forces to write an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal predicting that by 2050 antibiotic-resistant superbugs would kill 30 million worldwide. 

             The two CEOs, David Ricks from Eli Lilly & Co.  and Kasim Kutay from Novo Holdings A/S warn that eclipsing Covid-19 "another potentially devastating pandemic is looming:" what the industry calls superbugs.

             They predict that right now these already kill 35,000 Americans annually with "world-wide deaths projected at 10 million annually in 30 years."  The piece seems to be early publicity to drum up support for the AMR (Anti-Microbial Resistance) Action Fund created by 20 pharmaceutical companies tossing in $1 billion to support "the development of new antibiotics."

             Did you catch that last phrase?  I'm not opposed to experimentation and technology, but where does this trajectory lead?  When does excitement over painting the floor become "oh dear, we've just painted ourselves into a corner.?"

             It's kind of like the current pandemic regulations.  What is the litmus test that says "it's okay to come out now?"  Oh, silly me.  It's Nov. 3, isn't it?  Just an aside.

             But back to the superbugs.  Right now, today, we're still feeding more antibiotics to animals than humans.  Right now, today, Glyphosate is still for sale even after a $10 billion settlement offer.  I'm not sure how much more hubris I can stand.  When a microbe can go through 10 generations per hour to adapt to new contexts, do we really think we're going to beat these guys?

             How about a national resolve, akin to walking on the moon, that would build immune systems?  Let's drastically drop antibiotic use rather than escalate or assume we can concoct new generations that will not themselves create more virulent super bugs. 

             If you think today's superbugs are hard to kill, how about the superbugs that develop from a new generation of super antibiotics?  How super can we get before we fall to our knees in humility and recognize creation's wisdom?  What makes anyone think that if we make new super antibiotics the microbes will suddenly give up and quit adapting and mutating?  And yet that seems to be exactly what these scientists seem to assume. My trust in science is already shaky; this doesn't help.

             I'm betting on the microbes to win; how about you?